I don’t normally predict stuff, but here goes:

Coffee shops will begin to eye Scottsdale, rather than downtown Phoenix. Right now Scottsdale is an untapped market! We’ve got Village Coffee, Coffee Plantation, and Sola Coffee Bar, and that’s basically it besides some chains.

The number of new shops in downtown Phoenix will level out (1-2 more, at most). In 2011 one or two will abandon downtown. There are a lot of shops downtown at the moment, and I wonder if it is becoming too saturated.

Cartel will continue to expand, opening one additional shop… in Tempe.

More web and social media. Coffee shops and coffee roasters will begin to realize how important an online presence is to business. They’ll start interacting with customers on Twitter and Facebook.

The coffee will keep getting better. More shops will begin roasting their own coffee, and educating their customers about it. The divide between average coffee shops and great shops will become even greater, though.

Coffee Plantation will close, for good. They only have two locations remaining, and I predict that the shopping centers refuse to renew their leases knowing they can get a stronger coffee brand. I’d be pleasantly surprised if the coffee improved, but I’ve been wishing for years.

These are easy predictions to make. What are YOUR predictions for 2010?

Arizona Coffee

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  1. Jon

    I predict I will take charge of my caffeine cravings by purchasing my own dual boiler, totally PID controlled machine, with an E61 group..

    I mean, how else am I gonna get consistently excellent espresso without leaving my house?

    Happy New Year!

  2. Don’t forget @realjoe’s promise to build his own roaster from scratch… very interesting project, that.

  3. Jerrid

    Sadly, I too think 2010 will be the end for CP. I also predict Starbucks will close at least 5 more area stores and convert a few to the Seattle’s Best brand as they are trying to broaden there business. I also predict that The Coffee Bean will exit the AZ market and close all remaining valley stores or at least sell them to a local franchisee. Could be a good thing for any independent coffee houses moving to Scottsdale.

    I would like to see one or two independent shops open up in Ahwatukee. The only ones I know of now are Seattle Espresso and Brubakers.

  4. You forgot “Intelligentsia will open a roastery and 5 retail locations.” ; )

  5. Aaron

    Not a prediction but more of an amazement… I cannot believe there are no independants in Chandler & Gilbert. These cities have (at last count before the recession) the highest per-capital incomes in the Phx metro area… yes, higher than Scottsdale. I think people are missing the boat… if you have good coffee why are you not offering it to people with the most disposable income?

  6. On the Scottsdale front, I know of 3 shops with plans for 2010, all in South or Old Town Scottsdale.

  7. Jaime Aguila

    Aaron, Amen! I live in Gilbert and besides Joe’s Coffeehouse on Ray and Higley, there are slim pickings out here. I teach at ASU Poly and have high hopes for a place opening up nearby.

  8. Brian Clemens

    Predicting one thing only: that many more Arizonans will experience high quality coffee, sourcing, roasting, customer service, thus expecting this level from their coffee experience. This will in turn make Arizona coffee shops compete based on the aforementioned qualities of a shop.

  9. JAXON

    RE: Tom Maegdlin,

    Are you saying Intelligentsia is opening retail spot(s) in Arizona?

    Please advise.. or clarify.. Thanks!

  10. Giggling at TM’s prediction!!!!

  11. Uhm, isn’t Seattle Espresso still offa Ray in Ahwatukee? What about that lil espresso shop across from the Ra Sushi in the Mall, next to the theatre complex? The theatre that will let you take their espresso in? I haven’t been to either in a while, but both were pretty exceptional last time I was there.

    I’ll predict that the level of coffee all over Tucson will take a step forward, and that three decent shops will open near me, and I’ll have to start splitting my loyalties half a dozen different ways.
    Those shops that still think that Starbucks is still a target will fall slowly by the wayside and be run over by folks who are shooting to compete with the Blue Bottles, Victrolas and Stumptowns of coffeedom.

  12. Totally a joke. I borrowed it from Ron Cortez. He called me one day saying “Dude, did you hear Intelligentsia is opeing up downtown?”

  13. Jaxon

    Haha, who knew coffee jokes is one of the best pranks! I was seriously excited as $@*% if that was true Tom!

  14. How do you think I felt when Ron told me that! I thought I was going to be able to work Cortados (in the proper glassware) back into my routine!